'We are likely to see growing water scarcity'

Climate change: 'We are likely to see growing water scarcity'

June 06, 2007

How will climate change transform India? What should Indians do in our everyday lives to lessen the impact of global warming?

Rediff.com's Nikhil Lakshman asked Dr Rajendra K Pachauri, Chairman, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, what India and Indians need to do to counter the terrors of global warming. The third in a five-part series of interviews:

Part 1 of the Interview: 'Climate change reports have not been diluted'
A lot of young people seem to be absolutely aghast at the consequences of global warming. Would you outline for them the immediate and long-term implications of climate change?
Well, all these have been documented in the report itself and I would encourage people who have a concern to read the report in detail. You know the issues that we need to consider are the fact that today you have enough observed evidence to show that the climate is changing. We also have enough observed evidence to show that the bulk of this change is taking place because of human activity.

We can separate out very neatly those effects which are caused by nature -- and these could be sunspots, these could be volcanic activity -- and those activities which are human induced. So we can say now on the basis of scientific research and very sophisticated modeling activities exactly what the separation between these two drivers is. I think that's very, very clear.

We now find that there is more than a 90% chance that all the warming that has taken place in recent decades is the result of human action.

We have also made projections for the future, which show, for instance, there will be major precipitation changes. We also know that there will be major temperature increases and the impacts are not going to be uniform. There are some countries that are far more vulnerable than others, some regions where the impacts will be quite severe.

In the case of, say, the Indian subcontinent, we certainly are likely to see more extreme precipitation events. We are likely to see growing water scarcity. We know our glaciers are melting very rapidly. And that's likely to cause very serious problems at least for the northern part of the subcontinent.
Part 2 of the Interview: Climate Change: 'The science is first rate'
Will the Himalayan glaciers truly melt?

Look at the rate at which the glaciers are melting. There is enough documentary evidence, there's visible evidence. You don't even have to measure anything. You can see it taking place.
Sea-level rise is a reality and you know we need to be concerned about it. We have a large coastline. Agriculture is likely to be affected adversely.

So you know these are issues that are clearly going to have major implications for human activity across the globe and it is important for people, particularly those who are in the younger age group, to worry about some of these issues and start taking both adaptation measures as well as ensure that on a global basis, we can bring about effective mitigation of emissions of these gases.

So is this change universal?

Well, a good part of it really is because even if we had stabilised our emissions during the year 2000, climate change would continue for several decades. As a matter of fact, sea level rise, which really has the longest time scale, will continue for centuries. So we have to adapt while we may bring about action to mitigate emissions.

But you think we need to adapt to climate change as well as mitigate its consequences?
Absolutely. You need to do both. One or the other will not work. You need both.
What adaptation can we do in India?

Water management. We need to manage our water resources far more efficiently. Make sure that every drop of water, at least in economic activities, is used effectively.

I mean simple things like the kinds of toilets that we have over here, they are terribly inefficient in the use of water. Everywhere else in the world they have come up with designs that are far more efficient. With urbanisation and the demand for water growing in urban areas, these are things that are going to be critical.

In agriculture, we waste enormous amount of water, in industries we need to recycle water. There is a lot that can be done in the case of agriculture.

We need to come up with very location-specific solutions and how we may be able to counter the impact of climate change. Otherwise, agricultural yields will decline.
What about the energy scenario?

Well, there you really need global responses and global solutions. India is a very small part of the emissions problem. Even though our share is growing, it's still very, very small. I think action has to be taken first by the developed countries and I think that's absolutely critical. It is essential.

The European Union is trying to tackle climate change. The Bush administration, for long averse to taking any action, has finally stirred. What about India?
The government has to take the lead. We have to come up with a game plan, we have to come with a roadmap about what we need to do about climate change and, of course, predominantly it has to be an adaptation-based plan of action.

The number of cars that are on the roads is ridiculous. We have to think of a totally different plan of transport as opposed to what has been followed in the developed countries. It doesn't suit our conditions, locally or globally. So you know these are things that have to be thought through and you know we have to articulate them.

Has the government consulted you on what needs to done? The finance minister mentioned the constitution of an expert committee on climate change in his Budget speech. It has been a couple of months since and there has been no movement.

I haven't heard anything but you know on a regular basis we (The Energy Research Institute of which Dr Pachauri is the director-general) work very closely with the ministry of environment. We provide them regular inputs in the negotiations, in defining their own position as far as climate change is concerned. We have a good relationship in terms of providing advice and analytical inputs to the government.

online available at- http://www.rediff.com/news/2007/jun/06inter.htm

'Climate change reports not diluted'

'Climate change reports not diluted'

June 04, 2007

Not too many Indians are aware that at the heart of the global debate on climate change is an Indian. Dr Rajendra Kumar Pachauri is chairman of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, established by the World Meteorological Organisation and the United Nations Environment Programme, to investigate global warming and its consequences for Earth.

This year's IPCC reports have startled world leaders out of denial mode. No longer, it appears, can climate change be dismissed by policy-makers as a monstrous crank theory conceived by a renegade scientific community.

At this week's G-8 summit in Germany, climate change and the threat it poses to the future of humanity will be one of the main subjects of discussion, treated almost on par with that other horrific challenge to the way we live, terrorism.

In an extensive interview to rediff.com's Nikhil Lakshman, Dr Pachauri -- who heads the The Energy and Resources Institute in New Delhi and is arguably India's leading enviromental scientist -- discusses the IPCC reports and what we ordinary folk need to do to preserve our planet from the dangers of global warming. A week-long series:

Are you satisfied that this year's IPCC reports have adequately conveyed the consequences and dangers of climate change?

I think they have because there has been an enormous amount of interest on the part of the media, and as a result I am sure our message and the essential findings of the reports have been conveyed widely across the world.

I feel generally satisfied but then this is only the start of a process which has to continue because let us face it, people have very short memories and right now, of course, the reports may create a bit of a stir. But over time people will forget about it and it will be business as usual. We have to think of some means by which one can keep reinforcing the message effectively.

Would you have been happier if the reports had been presented in the form they had been drafted by the scientists, because if you look at the American newspapers, for instance, there has been a lot of criticism about the way some countries watered down the conclusions?

No, I don't think they watered it down. The whole process of the IPCC is such that the summary for policy-makers is approved literally word by word by the governments. They (the government) have the immediate right to ask questions about every finding, every single piece of assessment that is contained in the reports.

The authors (of the reports) are present there and they have to answer those questions. They have to provide references, they have to provide a basis for why a particular conclusion has been arrived at. Often, to be quite honest, the kinds of suggestions that you get from the government representatives actually improves the quality of the reports.

So what we are really getting is a reality check on the part of the people who are involved in policies. And there are two benefits, one which I said you provide something in the report that is totally defensible and if it is not defensible then the authors decide to drop it. Secondly, I think what happens as a result is that you get a buy-in from the governments.

Once a government has approved a report then they necessarily have to accept ownership of it. Therefore, when it comes to any follow-up, no government can deny accepting the IPCC report. Because acceptance has been ensured through the process. So I don't think it (the IPCC reports) were watered down. Yes, there are always some modifications, and that is why we discuss these things for a period of four days or longer, which happened in this case.

Please describe to us the days leading to the presentation of the reports and the all-night discussions between the scientists and the policy-makers and your role in bringing about a satisfying conclusion.

Basically, you go through every sentence, line by line, you go through every word literally and as we go around the text, then people are free to discuss, debate, question what is there in the draft report. Then you sort of change it online if there is a need to do so. And since it is line by line you are talking about a 20, 21 page report.

Obviously, it takes all of four days and in this case it took longer because we worked right through the night. There were a few tricky issues and there you run into differences of opinion.

You then set up what is known as a contact group and that contact group meets outside sessions. And people who have very strong views about a particular issue participate in this contact group and we try to come up with any resolutions of any differences that arise.

How many countries were involved in this?
I think in Brussels, we had 114 countries.

And how many scientists?

There were the coordinating lead authors. I would say maybe 20, 25 which is the representative of the total number of scoentists who participated in the report.

And the policy-makers who took part in these discussions were also well informed individuals?
Oh yes! Because you know we go through a process of reviews of the draft. The drafts are sent out to governments and to experts for their review. And these are governments who have read the drafts, send in their comments and are totally familiar with the text. So essentially they are people who know what they are talking about.

So you wouldn't agree with the criticism that countries like China, Russia, Saudi Arabia and the United States actually diluted the report?

I wouldn't want to name any countries but you know there are always some countries are always a little more active than others. I don't think there has been any case, so I wouldn't use the word 'dilution'.

If you can't really find cogent reasons for defending what you have said, then clearly you just have to drop it. But what I'd like to say is that there has been no material change or alteration in the report as such. There might be some minor things that have changed but the basic thrust of the report has remained just as it was.
I read that some scientists are so displeased

with the process that they have vowed not to be involved in IPCC discussions again.

I said elsewhere -- it was reported also -- that after you have a 24-hour session literally, and at the end of it, somebody asks me, "Would you work for the IPCC again?" my instinct would be to say, "To hell with it! I am not interested." It is strenuous, it is a tough process and obviously people do get flustered, they lose their cool, they lose their tempers so if somebody walks out and says that they'll never work for the IPCC again, it really doesn't mean very much, it doesn't amount to anything.

In some sense you can say it's a lover's tiff, nothing more than that.
As chairman of the IPCC, what is your role?

The co-chairs of the working groups essentially run the meetings. I am there only to facilitate things if we run into any problems, if we run into any difficulties. I am there to understand what kind of roadblocks are coming in the way and how one might be able to remove them.

The overall IPCC meeting I chair myself. When the synthesis report is presented, which will be in November, I would chair that meeting so I will be at the receiving end.

With the working group report, it is the co-chairs of the working group who are the ones responsible for producing that report so they are the best ones to handle that session and defend everything as far as that report is concerned.

So, you are essentially a builder of consensus?

I am there to see that the process moves along established lines and if we run into any problems I'd like to see that we sort out those problems.

online available at- http://www.rediff.com/news/2007/jun/04inter.htm

Tobacco Corporations

Especial Indepth op-ed on World No Tobacco Day in India's National News Paper, Voice of Lucknow on Tobacco Corporations.

By- Amit Dwivedi

June 1, 2007

Status of Farmers in India

Indepth op-ed Article on Status of Farmers in India in Voice OF Lucknow India's National News Paper.

By- Amit Dwivedi

4 June, 2007

Budget must increase taxes levied on tobacco

Budget must increase taxes levied on tobacco

Whether it be the Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting, the creation of yet more districts, or Universal Secondary Education, there seems no end to the many and varied demands being made on the Ugandan government’s limited revenue base. It takes a brave person to be Minister of Finance.

So, we take this opportunity, on the World Health Organisation’s “World No Tobacco Day”, to remind Mr Ezra Suruma that he can reduce the growing gap between government expenditure and government revenue by increasing excise duty on cigarettes, which would at the same time reduce smoking-related deaths and illnesses, thereby increasing Ugandan life expectancy.

This tax increase would indeed be a marriage made in heaven between the Ministries of Finance and Health. So, we wonder why Mr Suruma has taken so long to implement such an obviously welcome measure.

We trust that his forthcoming budget will make amends by including a substantial increase in tobacco excise duty. And he will have a very strong argument to make his case to the tobacco companies if one can recall that in last year’s budget, taxes were increased on mineral water but not on cigarettes. The contradiction therein is blatantly apparent.

That the forthcoming budget should be tough on tobacco receives added support from two quarters. Firstly, Vice President Bukenya, in a recent visit to West Nile, said that tobacco growing should be abandoned in favour of other cash crops, as tobacco had made the people poorer.

Secondly the Ugandan Cabinet has supported the WHO’s Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (FCTC), and the country’s formal ratification will take place very shortly. The FCTC is the world’s first global public health treaty.

It aims to protect present and future generations from the devastating health, social, environmental and economic consequences of tobacco through comprehensive tobacco advertising bans, price and tax increases, big graphic health warning labels on tobacco products, measures to protect people from secondhand smoke and alternative crops for tobacco farmers.

Kenya, long ago, and Tanzania, recently, have ratified the FCTC, so it is a straightforward matter for tax policies to be harmonised within the East African Community and achieve a goal of the FCTC – regular and substantial increases in tobacco taxation.

So, on budget day we shall be expecting to hear good news from Mr Suruma; we expect you to increase excise duty on cigarettes.

Online at: http://www.monitor.co.ug/oped/oped05311.php

Cracking on smoking in schools, colleges

Cracking on smoking in schools, colleges

As part of its efforts to deter students consuming tobacco products, Karnataka will appoint 130 officials from various departments to take action against students smoking or consuming tobacco products.

Tobacco is said to have been introduced in Bijapur in the Adil Shahi era. Indian farmers who grew tobacco later, probably had no inkling of the hazards of their crop and luckily also did not use phosphatic fertilisers in modern times. However, it was discovered in a US based research that tobacco roots may absorb radioactivity from the soil.

There has been considerable fluctuation in the production of tobacco during the last two decades, even thought the area under the crop showed only slight fluctuation as per data of the Directorate of Economics and Statistics, Government of India. Endowed with various agro-climatic zones, India grows all types of tobacco (except oriental), which are broadly classified as flue cured Virginia (cigarette tobacco) and non-Virginia types. Gujarat, Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka between them account for 82.4 per cent of the area under tobacco crop. However, the production of tobacco in the country has been stagnant at around 6 lakh tonnes during the last two decades.

The need for development of alternate use for tobacco arises because of compulsion generated mainly out of health risks of using tobacco for introducing tobacco control laws. Tobacco is a major revenue-generating commodity in many countries.

As part of its efforts to deter students consuming tobacco products, Karnataka will appoint 130 officials from various departments in the state as implementing officers. These officers would be empowered to take action against students smoking or consuming tobacco products, said S Prakash, joint director (medical), Directorate of Health and Family Welfare.

In 2004, the year that Karnataka set up a State Anti-Tobacco Cell, a number of officers were identified from various departments like BMP, education, health, at district and taluk levels, along with principals of educational institutions to take action against students smoking or consuming tobacco products. The Central National Rural Health Mission has embarked in the anti-tobacco pilot project that has so far included five states. Karnataka is to be included too, with Bangalore Medical College as the nodal centre for the District Tobacco Control Programme, as well as District Hospital, Gulbarga, according to Dr Prakash. The funds for these two districts is said to be Rs 13.43 lakh.

Effective treatment for tobacco dependence could significantly improve overall public health within only a few years.
By Shonali Misra

Online at: http://www.deccanherald.com/Content/May312007/panorama200705314746.asp

Becoming tobacco-free

Becoming tobacco-free

Make a list of the reasons why you want to quit smoking. Keep the list on hand so you can look at it when you have a nicotine craving.

As many as 2,200 Indians stop smoking every day — by dying. According to statistics, tobacco is the second major cause of death in the world. Tobacco is addictive. It contains nicotine, a chemical that is addictive making it very hard to quit but it isn’t impossible. The smoking forms of tobacco are beedis, cigarettes, cigars etc; the smokeless forms include chewing paan with zarda (tobacco), gutka, pan masala and snuff.

One cigarette and one beedi contain approximately 4,000 chemicals while one packet of Pan Paraag, gutka, Khaini, and Hans contain about 3,000 chemicals. Forty per cent of cancers detected in India are because of tobacco use. One cigarette and one beedi reduce seven minutes of your life while one packet of Pan Paraag, or Hans reduce four minutes of your life.

It causes sexual impotency in men, miscarriage and infertility in women, wrinkled skin, stained teeth, bad odour, mouth ulceration and difficulty in swallowing. Every organ in the body is affected from head to toe, especially the brain, lungs and heart. There could be heart attacks, chronic cough and lung disease, worsened condition of diabetes, blood pressure and lower stamina.

Babies born to mothers who smoke can be sicker, die suddenly, or have more infections of the middle ear, coughing and wheezing.

Cause problems to family, friends and co-workers from the smoke from the cigarettes — exposing them to the same dangers. This is called second hand smoking
By stopping, a person will no longer be a bad influence on younger children in his or her family and in the society. The self-confidence, and self-image of the person improves, when he or she quits. No more looks of disapproval or feelings of guilt.

Saving of money is another advantage, expenditure on buying cigarettes, lighters, ashtrays, matches and so on can be saved. Quitting smoking reduces bad breath, yellowing of teeth or fingers. Overall performance of the person in physical activities will be remarkably improved after quitting the habit of smoking.

Pick a stop date. Choose a date one to two weeks away so you can get ready to quit. If possible, choose a time when things in your life will change. Or just pick a time when you don’t expect any extra stress at school, work or home. For example, quit after final exams or a project assignment, not during them. Make a list of the reasons why you want to quit. Keep the list on hand so you can look at it when you have a nicotine craving.

Keep track of where, when and why you smoke. You may want to make notes for a week or so to know ahead of time when and why you will crave for tobacco.

Plan what you’ll do instead of using tobacco. You may also want to plan what you’ll say to people who pressure you to smoke or chew.

Throw away all of your tobacco. Clean out your room if you have smoked there or left a tobacco packet lying around. Throw away your ashtrays, lighters, empty packets, anything that you connect with your tobacco habit.

Tell your friends that you’re quitting. Ask them not to pressure you. Find other things to do with them besides using tobacco.

Stop on the stiulated date and time. Plan little rewards for yourself for each tobacco-free day, week or month. For example, buy yourself a new shirt or ask a friend to see a movie with you.

Things to do instead of smoking or chewing: Chew sugarless gum, cardamom, a toffee, etc. Call a friend. Go to a place where you can’t smoke. Take a walk or work out. Remind yourself why you want to quit. Develop a healthy lifestyle.

(Inputs: Tobacco Cessasion Center, NIMHANS, Bangalore)

Online at : http://www.deccanherald.com/Content/May312007/panorama200705314743.asp